The Future Of Nuclear Power And Rooppur

Japan’s nuclear disaster at Fukushima will have a significant impact on the future of nuclear power around the world and possibly on the Rooppur nuclear power project. The nuclear industry got its first major shock after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 in the US and the second shock in 1986 after a more serious one in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the former Soviet Union (now in Ukraine). The industry took lessons from all such accidents, both major and minor, and improved the safety features of nuclear reactors over the last fifty years. True, it was believed that another major nuclear accident after Chernobyl was most unlikely. But it has happened, though the time gap increased from seven years between the first two major accidents to a quarter of a century between the second and the third ones. The only difference is that while the earlier two accidents occurred for manmade reasons, the Japanese disaster was caused by two successive natural calamities, an 8.9- magnitude earthquake followed by a 10 to 14 metre high tsunami, both being unprecedented in recorded history. It is too early to make any meaningful evaluation of the nuclear accident at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant. A full picture of what has happened has yet to emerge. We need to know the exact sequence of events that unfolded at the plant. Every event will be critically and thoroughly analysed to find the reasons and remedies. Moreover, the crisis is not yet over. It is important to observe how the situation progresses and how it is finally resolved. For the time being, our hearts and prayers are with the Japanese people who have been struggling to overcome the aftermaths of three disasters including the one at the nuclear power plant. The workers at the plant site are doing a remarkable job.  Shaken physically and mentally by three consecutive catastrophic events, they are working hard day and night keeping cool in a high-radiation zone taking great personal risks. The plant workers and others engaged in the rescue and rehabilitation operations are the brave sons of Japan. They truly deserve our appreciation and applause.      Out of six boiling water reactors at the Fukushima plant site, units 1 , 2 and 3 were operating at the time of the earthquake. Units 4 , 5 and 6 were shut down earlier for routine maintenance. Unit 4 had its fuel removed from the reactor core. All the reactors had spent fuel pits close to the reactors where used nuclear fuel was being cooled by water for the removal of decay heat generated by the intense radiation within the fuel. Apparently, there was no damage to the nuclear reactors during the earthquake even though the ground acceleration at Fukushima unit 3 was 507 cm/sec. sq compared to the reactor design value of 449 cm/sec. sq. All the three operating reactors shut down automatically as expected and, in absence of any power from the grid, the captive diesel generators started to supply electricity to the emergency cooling systems for the removal of the decay heat from the cores. The emergency generators, however, were knocked out by the tsunami. The cooling systems of the nuclear reactors and the spent fuel pits thus became inoperative. The reactor cores and the spent fuel began to overheat. A mixture of steam and hydrogen produced by the intense heat caused explosions in the reactor buildings in units 1 , 2 and 3.  The high temperature of the spent fuel in unit 4 caused fires in the building. It is believed that the cores of units 1 , 2 and 3 have been damaged badly, probably resulting in partial meltdowns. Offsite power has now been restored to the reactor site and is being used to cool the reactors of units 1 , 2 and 3 by injecting fresh water, instead of seawater pumped earlier. Efforts are being made to restore the reactor cooling systems. Water is being sprayed in spent fuel pits in units 1 to 4. Cooling of spent fuel in units 5 and 6 has been restored. The radiation levels around the site are fluctuating. Areas around the reactor site up to Tokyo have been contaminated. Two leakage paths from unit 2 were detected and later sealed. Huge quantities of contaminated water have accumulated inside the reactor and turbine buildings. Some contaminated water was released to the sea for shortage of storage space resulting in increase of radioactivity of the sea water. Clean-up of the reactors may take years once the core temperatures stabilize. If the recovery of the damaged fuel from the reactors becomes too difficult and risky, the reactors of units 1 to 4 may be entombed like that at Chernobyl. Following the Fukushima disaster, questions are being raised about the future of nuclear power around the world. Germany has temporarily shut down seven of its oldest power plants whose operating lives were extended after expiry of their design lives. This prompt decision is believed to have been taken more on political grounds than on technical reasons, mainly to woo voters at the state elections. The safety aspects of all nuclear power plants in the US are being reviewed. EU countries agreed to carry out assessment of possible damage by earthquakes and other natural calamities on the 143 nuclear power plants located in 14 countries. Spain and Portugal are in favour of gradually phasing out nuclear power, a move opposed by France and Britain. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for new international nuclear safety standards during his recent visit to Japan. Russia is also reviewing its nuclear policy. Russia, China and India have significant long-term programmes for the expansion of nuclear power. Opponents of nuclear power are advocating closing down all operating nuclear power plants and not to build new ones. Is this proposition feasible? There are now 442 nuclear power plants with a combined installed capacity of about 375 ,000 MW in operation and 65 nuclear plants with a combined capacity of about 63 ,000 MW are under construction worldwide. In 2009 , the share of electricity generated by nuclear power plants was about 13.5 % of the total generation. The closure of all the nuclear power plants in operation and under- construction will have a tremendous impact on the demand of other sources of energy, mainly oil and coal, raising their prices to prohibitive levels. This will make energy as a whole too expensive and practically unaffordable. As a result, the global economy will be badly affected, perhaps initiating another recession. A greater share of fossil fuels in electricity generation will also increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, thus accelerating global warming and climate changes.  It may be noted that not many nuclear power plants were closed down after either the Three Mile Island accident or the Chernobyl accident. A few nuclear power plants under construction were abandoned in the States because of the delay in getting construction permits. One nuclear power plant in Austria was never fuelled and started up after completion of construction because of a referendum against it. A few Chernobyl type nuclear reactors in the former Soviet Union had their cores modified for reasons of safety or were phased out. One reactor in the Philippines was mothballed because of design faults. These are only isolated cases of closures for specific reasons. The probability of any large-scale closure of nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster should, therefore, be ruled out. It will be difficult to phase out even the reactors which operated for 30 years or more as there are now 173 reactors which fall in this category. Most of the countries with operating nuclear power plants are likely to review their safety features in the light of the Fukushima accident and make necessary modifications. Only the very old ones which do not conform to modern safety standards deserve to be retired. Modern generation-III nuclear power reactors incorporate passive safety features which make the reactors inherently safe. For example, generation-III nuclear reactors can have their emergency core cooling systems in operation without any electricity, the flow of water through the core being governed by gravity and convection. Both gravity and convection flows are natural processes which cannot fail.  The proposed nuclear power plant at Rooppur will be based on generation-III pressurised water reactors with containment buildings like those built in the US and Europe. The containment building can hold any radioactivity that may leak out of the reactor and prevents its leakage into the atmosphere. Modern reactor containment buildings are designed to withstand severe shocks including the impacts of Boeing 747 airplanes. The reactors at Rooppur will be designed to withstand all probable natural calamities like earthquakes, tsunamis (if any), tornados, cyclones, floods, river erosion, etc. The maximum ground acceleration at Rooppur is unlikely to exceed 0.25 g i.e. 245 cm/ sec. sq, which is less than half of that experienced at Fukushima on March 11. Moreover, the design philosophy of the Rooppur plant must also take into consideration whatever lessons we may learn from the Fukushima nuclear accident. There is, therefore, no reason to abandon the Rooppur nuclear power project at this stage. It will, however, be advisable to take a pause and incorporate whatever additional safety features are necessary in the light of the Fukushima experience. The supply contract for Rooppur must have a clause to take advantage of any improvement or innovation in design, particularly on safety systems, that may take place during the tenure of the contract.   Compared to other available alternatives, nuclear power is still the safest and the cleanest form of energy. In terms of fatalities, it has the lowest fatality rate per unit of energy generated compared with other forms of energy. Nuclear reactors produce practically no greenhouse gases. The world is, therefore, likely to depend on nuclear power, like it did during the last fifty years, for generation of electricity for a long time to come even after the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Bangladesh To Legalize Political Islam, Ignoring Courts Decision To Restore Secularism

Despite electoral promises and an apex court’s ruling to restore secularism, the Bangladesh parliament is poised to pass an amendment to establish Islam as the state religion and legalize religious politics. The Sunni Muslim majority nation of 158 million will relax stringent restrictions imposed in the constitution of 1972. The constitutional amendment committee members said in “ prevailing political reality” the parliamentary special committee on constitutional amendments on Monday decided to advocate for relaxing restrictions on political Islam so that Islamic parties can continue functioning without any restrictions. The provision of Article 38 of the Bangladesh constitution bans use of religion for political purposes. Instead, the article allows every citizen to form associations or unions, subject to any reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the interest of morality or public order. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, leader of the ruling Awami League, at Monday’s meeting said the ruling party would not curb the political rights of Islamist parties. The secularist activists expressed there frustration and women rights groups are disgusted after recently hearing prime minister's political vision to keep Islam as state religion in the constitution. The Awami League government in 1972 banned religion-based organizations after Islamic parties collaborated with the marauding Pakistani army that killed 3 million people in nine months in 1971. Hasina, also the leader of the House, made it clear to the committee that her government would keep “Bismillah’ir Rahman’ir Rahim” (Faith in Allah) in the preamble of the constitution and retain Islam as the state religion. Two previous military rulers, Gens. Ziaur Rahman and H.M. Ershad deliberately doctored the constitution to keep the Islamists in good humor. In 1978 , the provisions of article 38 , prohibiting communal bodies, were dropped while in 1988 Islam became the state religion. The dreaded Islamist party Jamaat- e-Islami, whose leaders are now facing war crime charges, became politically active following the 1978 order. Earlier in July last year the apex court, in a landmark judgment banned political parties that propagate Islamic ideology, reverting to the original constitution of 38 years ago. Moments after the judgment the rights groups seems to be excited by the court’s verdict and interpreted that it was a major blow to the Islamist parties which foresees Sharia law for apparently a secular Muslim population and also advocates Koran and Sunnah which will eclipse the state constitution. "It seems that the government is reading a wrong message from the secularists and liberal Muslims," remarked Shahriar Kabir, a researcher on Muslim radicalism and extremism. A secularist advocate, Shahriar Kabir, said the prime minister’s statement has confused the nation and it seriously contradicts the verdict of the superior court. It seems that the war criminals and their adversaries have nothing to fear. Their parties would continue to function and overtly work against the war crimes trial, he remarked.

The Trial Of Muhammad Yunus

The political vendetta in Bangladesh by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina against Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus could be understood as a modern-day replay of the famous conflict between Pope Urban VIII and Galileo Galilei. Pope Urban VIII put 70- year-old Galileo in prison in 1632 for condemning and rejecting Ptolemy's geocentric model, which was adopted by the early Christian Church. In the same spirit, Sheikh Hasina who labelled Yunus as a " blood sucker of poor people"— unleashed her propaganda machine to remove Yunus from Grameen—and used every means to justify her decision. Why did Pope Urban VIII insult the father of astronomy? Because Galileo rejected the accepted Christian Church view, that the earth is the centre of the universe, and that all other celestial objects orbit around it. Why has Hasina insulted the father of microcredit? In 2007 , Yunus criticized Hasina, accusing her of corruption.    In a letter to Johannes Kepler in 1632 , Galileo wrote: My Dear Kepler, What would you say of the learned here, who, replete with the pertinacity of the asp, have steadfastly refused to cast a glance through the telescope?  Will the next generation also misunderstand me as Pope Urban has?    Well, the next generation did not misunderstand Galileo at all. Instead, they criticized Pope Urban VIII, calling him a fool who failed to see the truth and praised Galileo for his contribution to modern science. In 1758 , for example, the Catholic Church dropped the general prohibition against Galileo's books rejecting geocentrism and advocating heliocentrism. On February 15 , 1990 , in a speech delivered at La Sapienza University in Rome, Cardinal Ratzinger (the future Pope Benedict XVI) declared to accept Galileo's Heliocentrism.    Like Galileo, Yunus wrote a letter to Hillary Clinton, in 2011 : My Dear Mrs. Clinton, Our Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called me a "blood Sucker of Poor People" for helping poor people through Grameen. She removed me from the Grameen Bank for defending 8.3 million poor women. However, I still decided to forgive her, for she knows not what she does. The big question is whether the next generation will misunderstand me the way Ms. Hasina has?    As mentioned earlier, history was on Galileo's side. The Catholic Church adopted his scientific theory—Heliocentrism. In fact, the State of the Vatican City admitted that Pope Urban VIII was just a fool. Will the people of Bangladesh do the same?

Shadow Of Sino - Indian Rivalry Over Nepal

The extended tenure of the constituent assembly (parliament) of Nepal expires May 28. It is unlikely that the parliament will be able to complete writing the constitution for the republic and find ways for integration into the army of some 20 ,000 Maoist combatants now cantoned at several places within the next six weeks. Political parties are sharply divided and prospect is dim of reaching a consensus. People in general are fed up that parliament could not present the nation a constitution even in three years. Political observers predict of a deepening crisis that may lead to chaos and bloodshed.    UCPN (Maoist) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda who is also head of parliamentary committee for constitution drafting committee sought two months extension of the constituent assembly (parliament) to complete its task. Nepali Congress, political parties of Tarai region (plains along the Indian border) and pro- monarchy parties are vehemently opposed to further extension of constituent assembly. They are forging unity to resist the UML- UCPN (Maoist) communist coalition government moves under the leadership of Nepali Congress. They view constituent assembly will automatically be dissolved on 28 May midnight. Presidential rule will follow and a fresh election will be held within months. Once CA is dissolved, UCPN (Maoist) will not be treated as the largest political party. All parties will be treated equally for holding election.    Political observers in Kathmandu noted with keen interest that leaders of three Tarai parties visited India last month on invitation from New Delhi. What transpired in their meetings with Indian leaders was not known. But their visit followed series of bomb blasts in Tarai region for several days. Media quoted intelligence officials as saying that underground outfits of Tarai parties returning from sanctuaries across the border in India created widespread trouble. The outfits have planned uprising after the May 28 deadline of the constituent assembly. Prospect of India imposing economic blockade to the landlocked Nepal in a troubled situation is not ruled out. In fact, Tarai party leader Gacchadhar has openly suggested New Delhi to impose economic sanction blocking supply of essentials.    Caretaker govt.    Sensing the trouble Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal told a function in Kathmandu on April 10 that conspiracies were being hatched behind the scene against completion of constitution drafting and peace process. Maoist party leaders believe that even if CA is dissolved on May 28 , the coalition government will continue as caretaker government until fresh election is held. They are also alert about the possible intervention from within and without the country. UCPN-UML coalition will not quit the government at any cost. It has reportedly planning to sack President Ram Baran Yadav to preempt his attempt to take over the power. UCPN sources said they have already started home work for this.    Analysts say even if the constituent assembly promulgates the constitution for the republic by May 28 , it will not be able to address all issues, aspirations of Tarai and indigenous ethnic groups. Such a situation is likely to trigger widespread disturbances and clashes. And if CA fails to give the constitution by the deadline, clash between left and democratic forces is inevitable. The Maoist party has plans to capture the state power and it will not so easily quit the government. It plans to go for fresh polls while remaining in government and return with two- thirds majority so that they can in future bring about necessary changes in the constitution and laws to cut short democratic forces.    UCPN (Maoist) had emerged the largest party in 2008 election with 237 seats in the 600- member constituent assembly - more than what Nepali Congress and UML together got the seats. But its government with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as Prime Minister could not survive more than 8 months. The government leaders criticized New Delhi for interference in internal affairs of Nepal.    The fall of communist government was reportedly orchestrated by India which had installed henchman Madhav Kumar Nepal of UML as Prime Minister with support of Nepali Congress. After months of political bickering and internal conflict in UML, Madhav Kumar stepped down. Sixteen attempts to elect a new prime minister by CA spanning over two months have failed. Finally, UML and UCPN forged an alliance and Khanal of UML, known as half Maoist, was elected prime minister on February 3 with the Maoist support. India leaning Nepali Congress, dissenting group in UML and Tarai based parties have termed the election of Khanal a conspiracy to sideline democratic forces and establish communist rule in the country. Lack of consensus among the political parties on vital issues of the constitution and integration of Maoist combatants as agreed earlier are the reasons for CA failing to draft the constitution even in three years. Failure of politicians has evoked displeasure and severe public criticism.         The dark horse    In the melee, a number of high level Chinese delegation visited Nepal showing keen interest in developing deep relationship with Kathmandu. The Chinese leaders have issued veiled threat against Indian interference in internal affairs of Nepal. Chinese military delegation led by PLA chief General Chen Bingde visited Nepal for three days last month. Chinese leaders have openly stated that political stability in Nepal is essential for overall stability of the entire region. A number of agreements have been reportedly reached between China and Nepal in order to think about the security concerns of both the two friendly neighbours. In fact, China will flood Nepal with generous assistance and military logistics. All that Nepal needs to do is just to signal the things it wants, writes People's Review of Nepal.    Such a prospect has unnerved New Delhi. It has been weaving plans to maintain domination over the landlocked Himalyan country. Analysts predict India will meet China in Nepal. How and when are remains a matter of great interest.

Death Of Benajir And Pakistan A Failed State

Once again, Pakistan proved to be a complete failed state. Pakistan is done. Its existence until now is a rare miracle. Pakistan created based on Islami Jojba failed to unite the people of this country and proved mixing politics and religion is compared to mixing gasoline in fire.   I cannot imagine that we were part of this country for 24 years. Bangladesh is fortunate enough to be out of Pakistan equation in time.   My condolence and deep sorrow on the death of Benajir Bhutto, probably the last hope for Pakistan existed until today. What a tragedy, Mr. Bhutto was hanged, his eldest son Murtaza Bhutto was killed on a crossfire by Pakistan police, his other son was poisoned to death by military rulers and now the last post of the family Benajir Bhutto has been gun down!   On this day of 27 th December of 2007 , one can imagine clearly that Pakistan is dead. This country need to be buried for the sake of the world security as soon as possible. Pakistan is the breading ground of terrorist. Pakistan ’s prime export item is now nothing but terrorism in the name of Islam, which they randomly exporting to other part of the world especially to Muslim countries.   Bangladesh must take a lesson out of this immense failure of Pakistan that militarist adventurism or the religious brand of politics is destined to be a part of hell and certainly, Pakistan is a prime example of hell in the world. Bangladesh must make its all out effort to be free from the clasp of militarism as well as terrorism brand of religion based politics now more then ever before. Sooner we realize the better for the country.