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Thursday, April 14, 2011

The Trial Of Muhammad Yunus


The political vendetta in Bangladesh by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina against Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus could be understood as a modern-day replay of the famous conflict between Pope Urban VIII and Galileo Galilei. Pope Urban VIII put 70- year-old Galileo in prison in 1632 for condemning and rejecting Ptolemy's geocentric model, which was adopted by the early Christian Church. In the same spirit, Sheikh Hasina who labelled Yunus as a " blood sucker of poor people"— unleashed her propaganda machine to remove Yunus from Grameen—and used every means to justify her decision. Why did Pope Urban VIII insult the father of astronomy? Because Galileo rejected the accepted Christian Church view, that the earth is the centre of the universe, and that all other celestial objects orbit around it. Why has Hasina insulted the father of microcredit? In 2007 , Yunus criticized Hasina, accusing her of corruption.    In a letter to Johannes Kepler in 1632 , Galileo wrote: My Dear Kepler, What would you say of the learned here, who, replete with the pertinacity of the asp, have steadfastly refused to cast a glance through the telescope?  Will the next generation also misunderstand me as Pope Urban has?    Well, the next generation did not misunderstand Galileo at all. Instead, they criticized Pope Urban VIII, calling him a fool who failed to see the truth and praised Galileo for his contribution to modern science. In 1758 , for example, the Catholic Church dropped the general prohibition against Galileo's books rejecting geocentrism and advocating heliocentrism. On February 15 , 1990 , in a speech delivered at La Sapienza University in Rome, Cardinal Ratzinger (the future Pope Benedict XVI) declared to accept Galileo's Heliocentrism.    Like Galileo, Yunus wrote a letter to Hillary Clinton, in 2011 : My Dear Mrs. Clinton, Our Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called me a "blood Sucker of Poor People" for helping poor people through Grameen. She removed me from the Grameen Bank for defending 8.3 million poor women. However, I still decided to forgive her, for she knows not what she does. The big question is whether the next generation will misunderstand me the way Ms. Hasina has?    As mentioned earlier, history was on Galileo's side. The Catholic Church adopted his scientific theory—Heliocentrism. In fact, the State of the Vatican City admitted that Pope Urban VIII was just a fool. Will the people of Bangladesh do the same?

Shadow Of Sino - Indian Rivalry Over Nepal


The extended tenure of the constituent assembly (parliament) of Nepal expires May 28. It is unlikely that the parliament will be able to complete writing the constitution for the republic and find ways for integration into the army of some 20 ,000 Maoist combatants now cantoned at several places within the next six weeks. Political parties are sharply divided and prospect is dim of reaching a consensus. People in general are fed up that parliament could not present the nation a constitution even in three years. Political observers predict of a deepening crisis that may lead to chaos and bloodshed.    UCPN (Maoist) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda who is also head of parliamentary committee for constitution drafting committee sought two months extension of the constituent assembly (parliament) to complete its task. Nepali Congress, political parties of Tarai region (plains along the Indian border) and pro- monarchy parties are vehemently opposed to further extension of constituent assembly. They are forging unity to resist the UML- UCPN (Maoist) communist coalition government moves under the leadership of Nepali Congress. They view constituent assembly will automatically be dissolved on 28 May midnight. Presidential rule will follow and a fresh election will be held within months. Once CA is dissolved, UCPN (Maoist) will not be treated as the largest political party. All parties will be treated equally for holding election.    Political observers in Kathmandu noted with keen interest that leaders of three Tarai parties visited India last month on invitation from New Delhi. What transpired in their meetings with Indian leaders was not known. But their visit followed series of bomb blasts in Tarai region for several days. Media quoted intelligence officials as saying that underground outfits of Tarai parties returning from sanctuaries across the border in India created widespread trouble. The outfits have planned uprising after the May 28 deadline of the constituent assembly. Prospect of India imposing economic blockade to the landlocked Nepal in a troubled situation is not ruled out. In fact, Tarai party leader Gacchadhar has openly suggested New Delhi to impose economic sanction blocking supply of essentials.    Caretaker govt.    Sensing the trouble Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal told a function in Kathmandu on April 10 that conspiracies were being hatched behind the scene against completion of constitution drafting and peace process. Maoist party leaders believe that even if CA is dissolved on May 28 , the coalition government will continue as caretaker government until fresh election is held. They are also alert about the possible intervention from within and without the country. UCPN-UML coalition will not quit the government at any cost. It has reportedly planning to sack President Ram Baran Yadav to preempt his attempt to take over the power. UCPN sources said they have already started home work for this.    Analysts say even if the constituent assembly promulgates the constitution for the republic by May 28 , it will not be able to address all issues, aspirations of Tarai and indigenous ethnic groups. Such a situation is likely to trigger widespread disturbances and clashes. And if CA fails to give the constitution by the deadline, clash between left and democratic forces is inevitable. The Maoist party has plans to capture the state power and it will not so easily quit the government. It plans to go for fresh polls while remaining in government and return with two- thirds majority so that they can in future bring about necessary changes in the constitution and laws to cut short democratic forces.    UCPN (Maoist) had emerged the largest party in 2008 election with 237 seats in the 600- member constituent assembly - more than what Nepali Congress and UML together got the seats. But its government with Pushpa Kamal Dahal as Prime Minister could not survive more than 8 months. The government leaders criticized New Delhi for interference in internal affairs of Nepal.    The fall of communist government was reportedly orchestrated by India which had installed henchman Madhav Kumar Nepal of UML as Prime Minister with support of Nepali Congress. After months of political bickering and internal conflict in UML, Madhav Kumar stepped down. Sixteen attempts to elect a new prime minister by CA spanning over two months have failed. Finally, UML and UCPN forged an alliance and Khanal of UML, known as half Maoist, was elected prime minister on February 3 with the Maoist support. India leaning Nepali Congress, dissenting group in UML and Tarai based parties have termed the election of Khanal a conspiracy to sideline democratic forces and establish communist rule in the country. Lack of consensus among the political parties on vital issues of the constitution and integration of Maoist combatants as agreed earlier are the reasons for CA failing to draft the constitution even in three years. Failure of politicians has evoked displeasure and severe public criticism.         The dark horse    In the melee, a number of high level Chinese delegation visited Nepal showing keen interest in developing deep relationship with Kathmandu. The Chinese leaders have issued veiled threat against Indian interference in internal affairs of Nepal. Chinese military delegation led by PLA chief General Chen Bingde visited Nepal for three days last month. Chinese leaders have openly stated that political stability in Nepal is essential for overall stability of the entire region. A number of agreements have been reportedly reached between China and Nepal in order to think about the security concerns of both the two friendly neighbours. In fact, China will flood Nepal with generous assistance and military logistics. All that Nepal needs to do is just to signal the things it wants, writes People's Review of Nepal.    Such a prospect has unnerved New Delhi. It has been weaving plans to maintain domination over the landlocked Himalyan country. Analysts predict India will meet China in Nepal. How and when are remains a matter of great interest.

Death Of Benajir And Pakistan A Failed State


Once again, Pakistan proved to be a complete failed state. Pakistan is done. Its existence until now is a rare miracle. Pakistan created based on Islami Jojba failed to unite the people of this country and proved mixing politics and religion is compared to mixing gasoline in fire.   I cannot imagine that we were part of this country for 24 years. Bangladesh is fortunate enough to be out of Pakistan equation in time.   My condolence and deep sorrow on the death of Benajir Bhutto, probably the last hope for Pakistan existed until today. What a tragedy, Mr. Bhutto was hanged, his eldest son Murtaza Bhutto was killed on a crossfire by Pakistan police, his other son was poisoned to death by military rulers and now the last post of the family Benajir Bhutto has been gun down!   On this day of 27 th December of 2007 , one can imagine clearly that Pakistan is dead. This country need to be buried for the sake of the world security as soon as possible. Pakistan is the breading ground of terrorist. Pakistan ’s prime export item is now nothing but terrorism in the name of Islam, which they randomly exporting to other part of the world especially to Muslim countries.   Bangladesh must take a lesson out of this immense failure of Pakistan that militarist adventurism or the religious brand of politics is destined to be a part of hell and certainly, Pakistan is a prime example of hell in the world. Bangladesh must make its all out effort to be free from the clasp of militarism as well as terrorism brand of religion based politics now more then ever before. Sooner we realize the better for the country.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Bengal Worse Than Gujrat For Muslims?


NEW DELHI: These are figures the Left Front should be wary of as it prepares to defend its citadel of 34 years in West Bengal. An analysis of data on the Muslim community released by the chief economist of the National Council of Applied Economic Research, Abu Saleh Sheriff, reveals that the state’s minority has benefited little from development measures. In terms of human development indices, the Muslims have fared very poorly. Of the 25.2 % Muslim population, only 2.1 % have government jobs and 50 % children are out of school at the primary level. Only 12 % go on to complete matriculation. These numbers are all the more astonishing given the fact that Left swears by its secular credentials and positions itself as a protector of minority rights. Alarm bells have already started ringing, especially after a postmortem of the Left’s poor showing in the civic elections last year. An important factor which could have resulted in the dismal performance was Muslim disenchantment. In what may be viewed as the party’s efforts to make amends, there is a steep 33 % hike in the number of Muslim candidates fielded by Left Front. It has gone up from 42 in 2006 to 56 this time in the 292- member Assembly. Throughout his lecture, Sheriff — who has also been the member secretary of the Sachar panel — spoke of Gujarat and West Bengal in the same breath. In fact, he used the data to project the Left- ruled state in a far worse light than the state ruled by Narendra Modi, not regarded by many as a benefactor of the minorities. And this comparison appeared all the more relevant because the West Bengal government had gone out of its way to provide shelter to Qutubuddin Ansari, the man who became the face of the post- Godhra riots with his folded hands and tearful eyes. “If a substantial fraction of the state’s 25% Muslim population have traditionally voted for the alliance it could be because of the projected gains of the land reforms even though if you look at the figures, it shows that these reforms do not seem to have made any significant difference to the living standards of the community. With the elections coming, it is time this reality is brought to the knowledge of the public,” Sheriff said. He was addressing a seminar on “Relative development of West Bengal and Socio-Religious Differentials” organized by the Institute of Objective Studies at the India Islamic Cultural Cultural Centre. Shariff’s figures on education, sourced, according to him from the census database and the Planning Commission, show 50 % Muslim children attend school at the primary level, 26 % remain in middle school and only 12 % complete matriculation against 54 %, 30 % and 13 % respectively for SC/STs and 80 %, 58 % and 38 % for others. Of the 90 minority-concentrated districts in the country, West Bengal has 12. “The worst are the state government employment figures where even Gujarat with its 9.1 % Muslim population and with a 5.4 % share in jobs is way ahead of West Bengal which is by far the worst in the country. We had to try very hard to get these figures out from the state government because, for obvious reasons, they are very secretive about this,” Shariff said. A look at OBC statistics in Bengal shows only 2.4 % of its Muslims belong to that category. This, Sheriff says, is not the real picture and simply exposes the state government’s reluctance to undertake the enumeration exercise.

China Entices Burma As India Struggles To Look East Analysis


The Chinese National Petroleum Corporation has offered aid worth $6 million to Myanmar for building hospitals. This is no philanthropy, but an exercise aimed at pushing Myanmar to speed up laying the planned 878 km-long crude pipeline. In other words, a move to secure China’s access to Myanmar’s oil reserves.1 Simultaneously, a 2 ,389 km pipeline from Kyakphu in Myanmar to China’ s Yunnan province is also being pursued. In 2010 , the Asian giant pumped the largest investment into the junta’s coffers, estimated at $8.17 billion.2 China’s strides will, expectedly, fuel competition with India, which is energy hungry as well as concerned about encirclement by the red dragon. Indian initiatives in developing infrastructure, education facilities and aggressive bids for stakes in oil and gas in Myanmar with a focus on the North East have been obvious. However, is all of this too little, too late? New Delhi’s interest in the North East Region has often been critiqued as security- obsessed and not oriented towards “genuine economic development and trade promotion.”3 Trade through the main border points mutually identified as Moreh ( in Manipur) and Champhai (in Mizoram) have not lived up to the hype.4 The Myanmar Government has asked for strengthening the existing Moreh post so as to reap its full potential, before proposed trade points at Lungwa/Ledo, Pongru and Pokhungri in Nagaland and Nampong, Vijayanagar and Khimiyang in Arunachal Pradesh are agreed upon.5 Moreh’s official trade is only a fraction of its expanding grey market, reflecting that border trade is in total disarray with no clarity as to who is in- charge.6 Obstacles in legal transactions, lack of regulation by Myanmar on transiting third country goods especially from China and threat of non-state actors hassling traders in strong turf wars, have all left no incentive to develop commerce. Instead, trade has shifted to Tamu’s Namphalong market in Myanmar, disappointing local entrepreneurs in Manipur. This is just one case in point. It is not just the numbers that seem bleak. Experts at an IDSA workshop “Imperative of Infrastructure Development for developing Indo-Myanmar Relations” stressed that de- hyphenating economic development in the North East from the goal of constructive presence in Myanmar would be a zero-sum exercise. The logic being that unless the Indian side of the border sees development, trying to improve connectivity and energy access on the other side would meet logistical failure.. In any event, India’s current commitments in Myanmar seem to have been already outpaced by China. According to reports, PetroChina “is constructing a four billion cubic meter gas depot at Hutubi in the border province of Xinjiang to make the most of gas piped from Myanmar.”7 In contrast, as former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran notes, “The problem with India’s energy interests in Myanmar is that even if it develops A1 to A7 energy blocks or any other offshore Bay of Bengal blocks, how will be it be transported back to India? [...] At present, we only hold a 30 per cent stake in A1 and A3 blocks, and that too we are forced to sell to China because of the absence of a proper pipeline between India and Myanmar.” 8 Infrastructure bottlenecks remain in all of the India- initiated rail, road, power and energy related projects. The IDSA workshop suggested that New Delhi must focus “on infrastructure up to Tripura” and deal with logistic loopholes if execution of plans in Myanmar is desired. The detailed project report on the 2000 MW Tamanthi river project in Chindwin signed in 2008 is still being updated to get the requisite approvals.9 This is where China takes the game away from India. China acts, India deliberates. Coming to specifics, in the field of power-generation, the dilemma seems to be between power requirement and the potential harnessed. While the North East grapples with a severe power shortage, there has not been any effort to better utilise the Arunachal Basin, which, moreover, delivers below capacity because of the narrow nature of its corridor. An alternative, in the view of experts, is to first ensure power surplus from the Arunachal Basin over and above the demands of the north east, which, they ambitiously claim, is possible. Second, it is important to sell the concept of dedicated power plants in Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal. These must be insulated projects that focus on providing output to markets in Myanmar and Bangladesh with specific tariff regulations. This could work as an incentive for authorities on both sides of the border. The immense potential of inland waterway arrangements as an efficient means of transport also remains largely unexploited. Currently, the emphasis seems to be solely on the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Project, which envisages connectivity between Indian ports on the east and the Sittwe Port in Myanmar coupled with riverine transport and road connectivity to Mizoram. This provides an alternate route for transporting goods to North East India, and will thus boost trade ties.10 This is an important project, considering the pressure on the Siliguri Corridor and Bangladesh’s continued refusal to allow transit rights through its territory to the North-East. While project completion is expected by 2013 , logistical issues of river engineering like dredging, removal of rock outcrops, rapids, lack of navigation aids, etc., combined with environmental concerns, may delay its dividends.11 In such a scenario, experts note that India must better use its current MoU with Bangladesh on Inland Water Transport, which has so far only been semi-operational, neglected and subject to the whims of the Bangladeshi authorities. India is already watching nervously as China pushes ahead with the re-building of the historic “Stillwell Road”12. 61 kms of the stretch lies in India, 1 ,033 km falls in Myanmar and 632 km in China. Naturally, relentless Chinese efforts resulted in the contract being awarded to a Chinese construction company, which has already begun work on the 194 mile stretch from Myitkyina in Myanmar to the Pangsau Pass in Arunachal Pradesh, close to the Indian border.13 India has not begun to build its side of the road. Opinion stands divided. Indian businessmen strongly feel that this road, which is now almost unusable and prone to interdiction by insurgents, could be the key for the economic success of the North East. Rebuilding it will help re- establish the region’s trade ties with western China and South East Asia. The government, in contrast, sees this as a risky investment, given security concerns about China’s territorial claims to Arunachal Pradesh as well as the challenge of battling insurgent groups currently operating in the region.14 Many cross-border highways planned to connect India with Myanmar and beyond are still works in progress. The ambitious Rhi-Tidim and Rhi- Falam road projects, the Moiwa-Chindwin-Thailand trilateral highway project as well as trans-rail networks are still being refined.15 So far, only the Tamu-Kalaywa- Kalemyo Road connecting Moreh to Myanmar has been completed. Complaints of neglect have, however, surfaced about the road from Imphal that feeds into Moreh, which is symptomatic of the general approach. Experts from the Border Road Organisation have flagged real concerns. Logistically, not only is the North East region remote, it is also short on resources, and the soil, moreover, does not support the type of stones required for tar roads. More often than not, project costs do not include budgets for transporting heavy machines and equipment to these areas, which then translates into delays. Local quarrying affects the geographical balance of the region, which often destabilises the foundations of the roads laid. Overall, unlike China, India lacks in skilled manpower, which is a glaring shortcoming. Both in quality and quantity China seems to be at an advantage. This perhaps explains BRO’s establishment of a China Study Group with the specific mandate of assessing rapid infrastructure build up near Tibet and the north east. China’s strides in Myanmar have been well planned and executed. Beijing backed the military-led Junta when it was internationally isolated and doled out infrastructure support and soft loans long before India decided to look east. India’s image as a vibrant democracy and the strategic and economic need to counter Chinese influence in Myanmar will make policy options a lot tougher. Yet, what can be done now is to fully implement and leverage the existing framework and ensure that it delivers. 1. Saibal Dasgupta, “China’s sweetener to speed up pipeline through Myanmar,” Times of India, April 7 , 2011. 2. “Chinese investment in Myanmar tops $8 bn this year,” Reuters, August 16 , 2010 , reuters.com/article/2010 /08 / 16 /idINIndia- 50868920100816. 3. L. S. Singh, “Indo-Myanmar Relations in the greater perspective of India’s Look East Policy,” in Thingnam Kishan Singh, ed., Look East Policy and India’s North: East Polemics and Perspectives ( 2009). 4. Ibid. 5. Ministry of Development of North East Region, http:// mdoner.gov.in/index2. asp? sid=127. 6. L. S. Singh, op. cit. 7. Saibal Dasgupta, op. cit. 8. “India’s strategic interests in Myanmar: An interview with Shyam Saran,” by M. Chaturvedi http://www.ipcs. org/pdf_file/issue/SR98- ShyamSaranInterview.pdf. 9. www.mea.gov.in. 10. Ministry of Development of North East Region, http:// mdoner.gov.in/writereaddata/ sublink2 images/ KaladanMultiModal 2172726384. htm. 11. Executive Summary of DPR for Port & IWT, http://iwai.nic. in/misc/portiwt.pdf. 12. Stillwell Road was a route from India used by the British and American troops to supply Chinese troops against Japan during WW II. See, http://www. telegraph.co.uk/news/ worldnews/asia/china/ 8243834 /China-plans-to- rebuild-Burmas-World-War- Two-Stilwell-Road.html. 13. Subir Bhaumik, “Will the famous Indian WWII Stilwell Road reopen?,” February 8, 2011 , www.bbc.co.uk http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- south-asia- 12269095. 14. Ibid. 15. “India’s strategic interests in Myanmar: An interview with Shyam Saran,” op.cit.